Iraqi resistance shows skill beyond mere band of thugs

Milt Bearden, a 30-year veteran in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations who served as senior manager for clandestine operations, writes that the Iraqi insurgents could have taken their cues from Chinese military tactician Sun Tzu’s 2500-year old Art of War: “attack their strategy, attack their allies, attack their army…”

Sun Tzu also said “know yourself and know your enemy, and of a hundred battles you will have a hundred victories.”

There were two stark lessons in the history of the 20th century: No nation that launched a war against another sovereign nation ever won. And every nationalist-based insurgency against a foreign occupation ultimately succeeded. This is not to say anything about whether or not the United States should have gone into Iraq or whether the insurgency there is a lasting one. But it indicates how difficult the situation may become. —Seattle Times

Ironically, Sun Tzu was invoked as the inspiration behind the US “Shock and Awe” bombardment (Asia Times) of Baghdad which started the US attack on Iraq.

A Modest Proposal…

…for a trivial, somewhat scurrilous experiment in participatory weblogging: I know there are community weblogs, such as MetaFilter, in which thousands of participants create what some would assert is a vibrant cross-fertilizing conversation, while others would say the signal-to-noise ratio just decays from the effort. FmH has an audience far smaller, by, oh, at least several orders of magnitude, who I know are demanding, reflective, erudite readers in breadth and depth. I have always been puzzled, and sometimes solicited feedback, about the fact that other weblogs log many more reader comments, even many more per capita. Unsuccessful, I am tired of trying to figure out why, with rare exceptionsm, it is not happening here. (Is the commenting system too cumbersome? am I cultivating passive consumers despite — or because of — my attempt to be provocative? deadening thought?). Most conversation among the likes of you would likely be breathtaking, so I am going to try to take direct action to goad you into it on at least a trial basis. Not that you have to work for your daily dose of FmH, but I would like to propose that, for the next week, everytime you come here you scroll down, pick one post about which you have something to say, and enter a comment, one thoughtful comment. A couple of extra clicks, thirty seconds’ more time on my page. Begin with a bias toward those posts that do not yet have any comments. Amplify, fertilize, contradict, dispute, synthesize, eviscerate, perseverate, tangentialize, analogize on anything here… Then, as your reflections accumulate, you will inevitably be riffing off the comments of others. You know, of course, you can do it anonymously, if that matters; just not contentlessly. Indulge me, think about it for a moment, you really have no good reason why you would not try this for a week.

Why do I want to do this? [Stop reading here if your bullshit meter is turned on, it probably won’t make a whole lot of sense.] Surely, it is not because I care about the cumulative total of the little numbers in the parentheses at the end of every post per se. I have been interested for a long while in transformative social processes and the power of small communities, you might say on a tribal scale, a participatory scale, how group process works, how organizations think. Information processing constraints place an upper bound on face-to-face interactional possibilities around one to several hundred members; the possibilities for consensus- and confidence-based ‘social contracts’ move into a symbolic and some would say unworkable sphere with larger social groupings. Now, don’t nitpick, I realize that the community of readers of FmH is in no sense like a tribal culture. This is not a participatory democracy; webspace-rooted avatar-to-avatar interactions are in important respects different from face-to-face; cultural ecological niche contingencies as a shared experience are replaced by — what instead? — in a web community. Most of you would recoil from considering that any sort of community at all is manifested or embodied by merely coming to the same webpage from time to time.

Yet there is a coincidence of size. The readership of FmH is around the same order of magnitude as allowed in tribal culture and far different than weblog-communities more on the scale of city-states, nation-states, republics, representative democracies… with different possibilities. I have been far less interested in growing the scale of my readership; something has suggested that what at first appeared to be an uncanny hindrance to growth to which I have had to accommodate might be seen as an opportunity instead. I have always been fascinated by the transitions from quantitatively to qualitatively different states in human interaction; what interactional density at a nexus of people of this size would precipitate a quantum leap or tipping point? If so, how deliberately can the push be made? I am willing to take this wherever it might go… which most likely will be nowhere, right? Comments?

Smash the Windows

The Windows GUI as the Matrix: “…(Y)ou are asleep, a prisoner of your ignorance. And the only way to escape is by getting to grips with the machines, by learning their language. If you don’t get inside them, they will get inside you. Adapt or die.”

…If your children’s children can’t speak the language of the machines, they will have to get a manual job – if there are any left.

This is yet another reason why Windows is such a dangerous commodity. It lulls us into the pernicious illusion that we can deal with computers without adapting to their logic. By presenting us with colourful screens and buttons for us to click on, Microsoft encourages us to believe that we can force computers to adapt entirely to our preferences for visual images, without having to adapt ourselves to their preference for text.

But not only does this prevent people from getting inside the machine and keep them in a state of blissful ignorance, it also proves to be a deceit, for in the end the user still has to adapt to the machine anyway… — Dylan Evans, co-author of Introducing Evolutionary Psychology [here alleged to have been an inspiration for Matrix Revolutions], Guardian.UK

The opt-out revolution:

Dying Tongues

Native Languages: Legacy and Lifeline:

“The languages of the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara tribes are fading into silence, one voice at a time, as fluent elderly speakers die.

Those languages, embedded in a native Plains Indian culture thousands of years old, welcomed Lewis and Clark on their epic trip west.

But most children today on the Fort Berthold Reservation in west-central North Dakota grow up in homes where English is the language of daily life.

The Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara, today jointly known as the Three Affiliated Tribes, are fighting to save their languages — and culture — from extinction.

Choose a tribe from the menu … to learn about their struggles … and hear what is lost when a language dies.” —The Fargo (ND) Forum [via The Media Center]

Best news web site, Google News?

Ask Newsknife:

“When Google News was launched over a year ago there was mild nervousness amongst journalists. Was this a new kind of news site that might beat them at their own game? …We checked to see how well Google News, compiled “without human intervention”, picked the top two stories chosen by leading US news sites.

Google News initially picking the Top 2 stories of the moment around 59% of the time, improving to around 63%. CNN and Yahoo! News hover throughout at around 77%, a remarkably consistent performance.

Over the year Newsknife has probably studied Google News more closely than most people. We are a little surprised at the results. We thought Google News “hit rate” at choosing the popular top two stories might have increased more over the year, especially as Google are still calling Google News a BETA (not final) version. This suggests they’re fine tuning it.

Actually, we’re surprised Google News is still a BETA version after over a year….”

Newsknife has some ideas about how Google News can increase its ‘hit rate’ through automated processes, but tells human editors they don’t have to go back to the job market just yet. I agree with their observation that Google’s strength is pulling together a massive cluster of links to news pieces covering a single story, but that it fails a version of the Turing Test by being unable to appreciate nuance in news coverage. The article gives an example:

For example, if a terrorist bombing has just occurred the first wave of news should give details of the bombing. The second wave might be reaction from around the world. At what point should reactions be introduced? And some reactions are more important than others.

In Newsknife’s opinion this is a challenge for Google News.

The limits of drug law enforcement

The following useful exercise comes from Mark Kleiman:

“One idea about drug law enforcement is that by making the illicit traffic more expensive and dangerous for the people who sell drugs, enforcement can push up the prices of drugs and therefore reduce consumption.


The old criticism of this approach, based on the notion that demand for illicit drugs was highly inelastic, turns out to be incorrect; cocaine and heroin, at least, seem to have greater-than-unit elasticity, so a price increase will actually decrease the total amount consumers spend. So increasing drug prices would seem to be a useful goal.


The bad news is that, in the face of mass distribution, enforcement has a very hard time increasing prices. When I learned about the illicit drug markets around 1980, heroin traded at wholesale for about $250,000 per kilogram and at retail in New York for between $2 and $2.50 per pure milligram, reflecting a kilo-to-street markup of about 10x.


Now, after twenty years of intensified drug law enforcement, the wholesale price is about $70,000 a kilo and the retail price in New York about 20 cents per pure milligram. [*], a factor-of-three reduction at wholesale and a factor-of-ten reduction at retail, reflecting a greatly reduced markup. The general price level, as measured by the CPI, has roughly doubled over that period, so the inflation-adjusted price of a pure milligram of heroin is actually down about 95%.


The price drop for cocaine has been a little bit smaller: from about 80 cents per pure milligram in 1980, the price fell very rapidly until about 1988, and has since stablilized (in nominal-dollar) terms at about 15 cents per pure milligram, which adjusted for inflation is a deline of about 90%.


All of this happened in the face of an enforcement effort that increased the number of drug dealers behind bars from about 30,000 in 1980 to about 450,000 today.


The policy implication would seem to be that enforcement has limited capacity to increase the prices and thus decrease the consumption of mass-market illicit drugs, and ought to focus instead on reducing the violence and neighborhood disruption associated with the illicit trade, by targeting the meanest dealers and the ones whose trafficking is most flagrant, rather than the largest.” [thanks, walker]

WWYS®

We Want Your Soul:

“A fantastic opportunity…No car? No home? No collateral for loan? Bad debt? No problem, no repayments. We want your soul. You can receive a guaranteed CASH SUM for life, in exchange for an agreement that entitles WWYS® the rights to your soul from now until all eternity.

Find out the current value of your soul – click here now for a free, no obligation quotation.

How does WWYS® work?

Medical and operant conditioning science has made huge advances in recent years and due to our various strategic partnerships WWYS® is able to identify the genes and lifestyle choices that make up what is commonly referred to as the soul.

Soul extraction is painless and worry-free. You need never remember your previous soulful existence, and look forward to a “life” of money and security.”

[They tell me that my soul is worth £8023 and that 85% of people have a purer soul than I do. Beat that.]

Jury convicts:

Update: I wrote below about the ongoing trial of a suspect in the 1977 brutal slaying of the mother of my friend Pam. It has just come across the wires that Eric Anderson has been convicted of 1st degree murder and given a life sentence without chance of parole. —Boston Globe Sleep soundly, Pam.

Addendum: Pam writes:

By the way….Rick Nagle tells us that the Cold Case Unit is no longer…There are still many families out there that have a cold case that still needs work. If anyone has any connections to state law enforcement, now would be the time to put in a good word for your local Cold Case Unit!

The dullest blog

“I hadn’t written in my blog for a while. I turned on the computer and wrote a new entry. I clicked the ‘submit’ button, thereby restarting my blog.” [Think of it as an exercise in mindfulness?]

Bad Liar

Rumsfeld retreats, disclaims earlier rhetoric:

“In the lead-up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said U.S. forces would be welcomed by the Iraqi citizenry and that Saddam Hussein had large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.


Now, after both statements have been shown to be either incorrect or vastly exaggerated, Rumsfeld – with the same trademark confidence that he exuded before the war – is denying that he ever made such assertions.”

This man is either so outrageously arrogant that he believes he can rewrite history at will or his memory so impaired that he has no choice but to live in a fantasy world of his own confabulation. In either case, it is hard to see how he would be seen as anything but an intolerable liability by the Bush White House. It must be considered too great a hit to Bush’s credibility to oust him with even the kindest spin before the election, too easy to impute that it would be an admission of sin (although, surely, the Bush administration does not care to, or is too inept to, operate by any semblance of the old adage about avoiding even the appearance of impropriety!). A conspiracy theorist might wonder if Rumsfeld will be eliminated by an ‘accident’ before he does too much more damage, and revered and mourned as a hero in the WoT®, instead. After all, as Josh Marshall said,

It’s become conventional wisdom that the Pentagon, or rather the civilians at the Pentagon, muscled out the State Department on key issues of planning for Iraq. My recent reporting tells me it’s much more a matter of Cheney and the Office of the Vice President. Much more.

Frist Denounces Memo on Senate Iraq Probe

The Senate majority leader is the latest Republican to protest in the aftermath of a leaked memo outlining a strategy by Democratic members of the Senate Intelligence Committee to highlight contradictions between intelligence reports and dysadministration claims about Iraqi weapns programs. No one doubts that the Democrats would be fools if they did not time revelations to affect Bush’s chances of rewinning the White House next year, but to my way of thinking it would not be unpatriotic at all but in the highest service of the nation to expose the irregularities in the Bu**sh** approach. The Republicans of course pull out that tired old horse of accusing the Democrats of undermining the WoT® Ironically, the memo was an uncirculated draft by a staffer and would probably not have been made public but for the Republicans’ desperation. The Republicans accuse the Democrats of politicizing the traditionally nonpartisan intelligence committee and making it impossible to do its crucial job, but again that is the pot calling the kettle black. The most partisan acts these days are those of Republicans refusing to leave the sinking ship of loyalty to the dysadministration..