Steven Pearlstein writes:“If it seems that the frequency and size of calamities have been picking up in recent years, it’s only because they probably have.” (via The Washington Post).
We continually underestimate the frequency and severity of so-called ‘low-probability high-impact events’, or ‘black swans’ (in the words of Nassim Nicholas Taleb), to our peril. Taleb, whose book I was uncannily reading when Japanese events unfolded, would go further, saying they drive human history. It is hubris to continue to make predictions based on what we know, when what we do not know may be more determinative.
