The Electoral College nitty-gritty

‘The margins in all these swing states are extremely tight. Still, as one scenario for how election night could play out, let’s assume that, as the averages currently suggest, Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan and the other lean-blue states; Trump wins North Carolina and the lean-red states; and Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are too close to call.

This would place Harris at 251 electoral votes — 19 away from the 270 she needs to win. And she’d have two paths to get over the threshold.

Path one would be to win Pennsylvania. Its 19 electoral college votes would be just exactly enough. (That’s why it’s the most important swing state.)

Path two would be to win Georgia plus either Arizona or Nevada. Winning only the combo of Arizona and Nevada would not be enough, as that would provide Harris with 17 electoral votes. She’d need Georgia too.

That’s why it matters that all of these states — Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada — look so close. Tiny shifts in them could well determine the outcome. And neither candidate looks to lead comfortably in enough of them so far….’ (Vox)