After traces of weapons-grade uranium were found at a civilian nuclear facility, suspicion mounts that Iran has a covert nuclear weapons program in violation of its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Under heavy US lobbying pressure, the 35-nation governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency gives Iran an Oct. 31 deadline to suspend uranium enrichment activities, allow weapons inspectors open access, and reveal the extent of their weapons program or face UN sanctions. The Iranian representative walked out of the Vienna meeting in protest and speculation is that Iran could quit the IAEA or abrogate the NPT. Bush gave his by-now tiresomely familiar signals that the US will take action against any nation he construes as a threat to us and the US is repeating the same mistake it made with Iraq in asserting that Iranian noncooperation with the inspection process will be seen automatically as an admission that it has something to hide. In essence, US bullying could turn the second most worrisome nuclear proliferation hotspot — along with North Korea — into another pariah outside the framework of international dialogue, fulfilling the prophecy of demonizing them with the moronic Axis-of-Evil® designation.

There is far more support in the international community and the IAEA for concern about Iran than there was about Iraq, given the far more credible evidence.

For six years the reformist government led by President Mohammad Khatami has tried to defuse Washington’s bid to isolate Iran by courting Britain and other European states. But European governments grew increasingly frustrated with what they considered Iran’s evasive attitude towards the IAEA and its contradictory explanations about its nuclear activities.

The failure of conciliation from Khatami’s government may strengthen the hand of Iranian hardliners. With the US having ‘cried wolf’ in Iraq, does this scenario make it more or less conceivable that we would circumvent diplomatic solutions and again take unilateral preemptive military action? US troops are already spread thin being bogged down in Iraq; could the urgency of action against Iran become the face-saving pretext to extricate American forces from the Iraqi morass and leave the country to its chaotic fate as we have done in Afghanistan (or force the UN in as reluctant humanitarian peacekeepers despite the world community’s reluctance to respond to the current US invitation to participate)?

Surprisingly, Russia supported the IAEA resolution despite perceptions that siding with the US would jeopardize its lucrative nuclear development contracts with Iran.