I’m so glad I subscribe to the WSJ OpinionJournal if only because James Taranto is so much fun to laugh at. In today’s column, he is suspicious of reports that the French heat wave has killed 3,000 because he does not know what to make of the Health Ministry statement that this figure includes deaths “linked directly or indirectly” to the heat. It would seem to me someone who does not understand epidemiological methods is not qualified to comment on an epidemiological finding, but he takes exception to this information:
In a statement, the ministry said its estimate was partly drawn from studying deaths in 23 Paris regional hospitals from July 25-Aug. 12 and from information provided by General Funeral Services.
According to 2002 figures, the Paris regional hospitals that were surveyed could have expected some 39 deaths a day, the ministry said. But Tuesday, they recorded nearly 180, it said.
“We note a clear increase in cases beginning Aug. 7-8, which we can regard as the start of the epidemic of deaths linked to the heat,” the statement said.
Morgues and funeral directors have reported skyrocketing demand for their services since the heat wave took hold. General Funeral Services, France’s largest undertaker, said it handled some 3,230 deaths from Aug. 6-12, compared to 2,300 on an average week in the year–a 37 percent jump.
He says it does not establish a causal link between the heat and the deaths. Uhhh, calculating the “excess mortality” compared to some reference period when, you reason, the factor in question is the sole variable is the closest you can come to causality in epidemiology, and is a well-accepted technique for assessing the impact of a heatwave.
But his contorted reasoning thrusts his foot even deeper into his mouth with his next statement. He thinks the 3,000 figure was chosen to compete with the number of U.S. deaths on Sept. 11th, 2001. “A popular lunatic conspiracy theory on the “European street” has it that George W. Bush is to blame every time the weather is bad.” Oh, and the French Ministry of Health is a prime proponent of this lunatic theory? Sorry, James, there’s only one lunatic in this story, and he’s not in Paris.
By the way, in another story further down the page, Taranto derides Sen. John Kerry for being not only “haughty” but “French-looking.” Yes, that’s what he wrote.
