News Analysis: A Mideast Lull That May Not Last. Dismal outlook on the fragility of the cease-fire. Among other things, Sharon and another Israeli cabinet minister chose this moment to intensify efforts to undermine Arafat. Israeli critics say the statements were orchestrated, as one put it, “…to prepare public opinion, in Israel and around the world, for a

large-scale military operation that will topple the Palestinian Authority and lead

to Arafat’s expulsion.” Israel demands that Arafat “arrest en masse Islamic militants he released from detention earlier this year,” which he refuses to do. Paradoxically, hawkish Israelis see Arafat’s being able to restore calm as an indictment, not a credit; it proves, ending polarized debate, that he has indeed been in control of the Intifada and responsible for the bloodshed all along. In an atmosphere of such eroded trust, it is hard to see how any brokered agreement on security arrangements could hold for long with the difficulty of taking the next step of reopening political negotiation. New York Times