“Who is Gladwell kidding?

Scientists have been harping on

so-called nonlinear effects for decades. Nonlinearity is the basis

of catastrophe theory, chaos, complexity, self-organized

criticality, punctuated equilibrium, and other scientific fads.

Everyone knows about the butterfly effect, which holds that a

butterfly flitting through Iowa can trigger a cascade of

meteorological events culminating in a monsoon in India.

Gladwell cites none of this work, and understandably so. His

utopian message is that by manipulating tipping points we can cut

down on crime, reduce teen-age smoking, and sell lots of

sneakers without massive efforts. But the lesson of nonlinear

research is that many phenomena are unpredictable, and

especially the complex social phenomena upon which Gladwell

focuses. Our culture is awash in potential tipping points. When we

try to tip events in one direction, they activate other tipping points

and careen down the wrong path. This is the law of unintended

consequences, about which you have written so eloquently, Ed.” [Slate]